Climate Change Or Not, Here’s How To Profit In Energy

Is climate change real?

I do not know, but not because I have ignored it or refused to examine the evidence.

In fact, I have meticulously absorbed tons of evidence, engaged in conversations with actual scientists on both sides of the debate, endured demagoguery from advocates of both sides of the question, and painstakingly sorted through piles of data until my eyes bled.

But that doesn’t matter much for how we can invest in energy.

Here’s why…

Take a look at these charts from the excellent folks at OurWorldinData.org.

It shows that the planet’s average temperatures have indeed risen by a little more than 1 degree Celsius since the 1940s.

That is a little less than 2 degrees Fahrenheit.

While some find that number alarming, I find it remarkable that that is all it is given the number of automobiles we have added, the growth of the global animal hers to provide quality food to a rising global middle class, and the continued spread of energy-gobbling technology.

There is also evidence that the ice pack is shrinking as are some glacier fields.

There is little evidence that this is not cyclical.

Keep in mind that we only have a few hundred years of observed weather data, and we have done a horrible job of interpreting it,

When I was in my teens, scientists told us that a combination of something called orbital forcing and the aerosol propellant in my droid was going to cause another ice age.

Roll-on deodorant was the 1970s’ equivalent of metal straws when it comes to being environmentally cool.

The Washington Post had kicked off the decade with an early headline warning that “Colder Winters Held Dawn of New Ice Age.”

As late as 1991, Carl Sagan and other noted scientists suggested that Kuwaiti oil fires may trigger an ice age.

Have global temperatures risen since 1940?

Yes.

Does it appear to be correlated with increased use of carbon fuel?

Yes.

Is correlation causation in this case, or is it part of a weather cycle we do not understand?

I do not know.

Here is what we do know about energy, carbon fuels, and renewable energy regardless of climate concerns.

Energy demand is going to increase thanks to population growth and increasing global prosperity. The demand for technology is just going to be gasoline on the fire.

We need more of all types of energy to meet that demand starting right now or maybe even a week ago.

If coal and wood are not to be burned to meet the current demand, crude oil and natural gas must be part of the solution.

Regardless of climate concerns, we should continue to develop renewable and nuclear sources of energy for a host of reasons, including efficiency, energy security, national security, and environmental concerns.

As investors, we also must recognize that politicians will buy votes by pouring money into renewable energy. As we have seen in the developed world over the past few years, politicians will attempt to support renewables even when it makes no economic sense.

Some European governments wrecked their economy by trying to go 100% renewable, and a significant portion of voters thanked them for doing so.

The smart play is to invest in all forms of energy and the infrastructure required to get that energy from the generation source to the end user.

Picking the sides here and ignoring either fossil fuel producers and infrastructure or renewable focus companies and assets would be foolish.

Play politics in your spare time. This is about making money.

As Richard Rainwater, a wildly successful investor who got his start with the (in)famous Bass brothers in Texas in the 1970s, once opined, most people invest, and they worry about markets blowing up. Getting rich is achieved by finding what has blown up and then investing.

Right now, for a host of different reasons, it would take all day to explore natural gas and renewable energy, which are both incredibly cheap.

Renewable energy will be the fastest-growing energy source for the next half century and then be the dominant source until nuclear fusion is achieved and harnessed.

Deep-pocketed, well-financed companies are going to make a fortune and pay out a massive dividend from that cash. You can buy some of these renewable energy market leaders today with dividends ranging from 5 to 12%, and that payout is just going to grow over time.

Fortunes will be made by patient, aggressive investors who act now.

Natural gas companies and the midstream infrastructure companies that support the industry are trading at depressed valuations today. Thanks to a milder winter and stepped-up production, there is an excess of supply, but the long-term outlook is not just bullish but ridiculously bullish, bordering on ludicrously bullish.

Many natural gas companies and asset collections are paying huge cash dividends and buying back stock at bargain prices. Fortunes will be made from these price levels.

Is climate change real?

Yes, climate has been changing since time began.

Is it an existential threat?

I do not know.

Will we keep using fossil fuels?

The answer is yes, unless we want to lower the standard of living for every man, woman, child, and cuddly little household pet on the planet.

Should we keep spending on renewable energy sources?

For more reasons than I can list here, yes.

What should investors do now?

Buy income-producing energy companies of all types.

When the price falls, buy more.

Sit back, collect checks, and build massive wealth.

This post originally appeared at Investors Alley.

Category: Other Useful Information